What it means
The diffusion of innovation model, developed by Everett Rogers, divides people into five groups by how quickly they adopt something new. The groups are innovators (about 2.5%), early adopters (13.5%), the early majority (34%), the late majority (34%) and laggards (16%).
The late majority comes just after the early majority. By the time this group buys, the product has usually become mainstream.
They do not want to take risks, so they wait until prices have fallen, bugs have been fixed and plenty of friends and colleagues use it. Often they adopt because they have to, for example when an old system is withdrawn or competitors have switched.
For businesses, this group represents a large share of total sales but needs a different approach. Marketing for innovators stresses novelty, while marketing for the late majority stresses reliability, simplicity, low risk and a clear reason to switch.
Guarantees, free trials, easy migration help and strong customer service all carry weight. Pricing matters too.
The late majority is typically more price-sensitive, so firms often cut prices, offer basic versions or add bundles to win them. This can reduce unit margins, but the larger volume can still make the stage very profitable.
Knowing where the market sits on this curve helps with planning. If most customers are still early adopters, forecasts should allow for slower sales growth, while a product reaching the late majority is nearing saturation.
At that point, the focus often shifts from winning new customers to keeping existing ones and cutting cost. Network effects can pull the late majority into a market.
When a product becomes more useful as more people use it, such as a payment network or a messaging tool, each new user raises the pressure on those who have not joined. Eventually the cost of staying out, such as missing orders or paying more for older methods, outweighs the fear of change.
In practice
Real-world examples.
Example
A cloud accounting provider sees growth slow as early adopters are all signed up. The company changes its marketing to focus on ease of use, local support and low-risk free trials for more cautious businesses. It sets a target to retain most new customers for at least two years.
Example
A bank launches a mobile app and finds that older customers join only after branches stop handling certain services. The bank offers in-branch help to ease the move. It also trains branch staff to answer questions patiently.
Example
A smart-meter supplier notes that households adopt when neighbours and relatives have used them for some time. The supplier uses testimonials and case studies instead of technical claims. The messages emphasise reliability and refunds if the customer is not satisfied.
Formula
Calculation
Late majority customers = total potential market x 34%
Cumulative adoption before the late majority = 2.5% + 13.5% + 34% = 50%
Worked example: a payment app aims at a market of 1,000,000 potential business users.
Step 1: Customers adopting before the late majority = 1,000,000 x 50% = 500,000.
Step 2: Late majority = 1,000,000 x 34% = 340,000.
Step 3: Cumulative adoption after the late majority = 500,000 + 340,000 = 840,000, or 84%.
If the average customer pays $120 a year, the late majority represents potential revenue of 340,000 x $120 = $40,800,000 a year.Case study
Seen in the real world.
Pinewood Software is a fictional company that sells scheduling tools to small clinics. After six years, around half of the clinics in its target market were using a digital scheduler, and sales growth began to slow.
The marketing manager realised that the remaining clinics were cautious and wanted proof. She introduced a low-cost starter plan, a guaranteed migration service and a set of case studies from similar clinics.
In this illustrative story, sign-ups rose by 40% in the next year, although revenue per customer was lower. The company accepted lower margins per customer because the late majority brought volume and long-term loyalty. The company now tracks which stage of adoption each new customer represents.
Watch out
Common mistakes.
- Using the same marketing message for every stage, when the late majority responds to proof and reliability instead of novelty.
- Assuming slow growth means the product has failed, when it may simply be moving from early adopters to a more cautious group.
- Treating the percentages as exact, when they are a model and real markets vary.
Questions
People also ask.
Who are the late majority?
They are the roughly 34% of a market that adopts a new product after the early majority, usually once it is proven and widely used.
How is the late majority different from laggards?
Laggards, about 16% of the market, are the last to adopt and may resist change until it is unavoidable.
How should pricing change for this group?
Pricing is often lower or simpler, with basic versions, bundles and guarantees to reduce the sense of risk.
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