What it means
A rent roll shows current leases, and an expiry profile turns their end dates into a forward calendar. It may group the next months, years or other intervals and show how much occupied space or rent comes due in each, and the choice of measure changes what stands out.
A useful report includes property, tenant, lease end date, space, annualised rent and relevant options, and a public real estate trust's operating data, for example, presents expirations by leases, square footage and annualised base rent. If 40% of current annual rent is attached to leases ending next year, income may be at risk, yet the tenants may renew, extend or leave under different terms, so treat the number as exposure, not certain lost rent.
Rent and space can tell different stories, because a small, high-rent tenant can represent substantial income exposure while a large, low-rent occupier can dominate the space measure, so view both before prioritising outreach. Show the denominator too, since a percentage of occupied rent differs from a percentage of total possible rent and vacant units do not have expiring leases.
Break clauses deserve a separate look, because a tenant may have a right to end a lease before its stated expiry if conditions are met, and an expiry chart that omits those dates can understate earlier vacancy risk. Renewal options matter too, since the legal and commercial details determine whether a tenant can extend and at what rent, and an option should not be assumed to be exercised simply because it exists in the lease.
Update the profile when extensions, assignments, terminations and new lettings alter the timing, as a stale profile can misdirect leasing work months after the underlying rent roll changed. Consider the time needed to replace a tenant, since a large office suite or specialist industrial property may require marketing, incentives and fit-out, and starting a renewal conversation only in the expiry month can be too late.
Income risk also depends on market rent: an expiring below-market lease might create an opportunity, while an above-market lease can be hard to renew on the same terms, so the expiry date alone gives no answer. Pair the schedule with tenant quality and concentration, because several leases ending together for related businesses may create correlated risk and one anchor tenant leaving can affect smaller tenants nearby.
Weighted average lease expiry summarises remaining term in one number, often weighted by rent or area, but it can hide a large single-year concentration that the profile makes visible. Property owners can use the profile to stage leasing resources and cash forecasts, since potential vacancy may reduce rent while commissions, tenant improvements and free-rent periods add cost, so the larger expiry clusters deserve stress-testing.
Occupiers can use a similar view for their own sites, as a retailer with several leases ending together may face concentrated relocation and negotiation work. Avoid manipulating lease terms solely to smooth a chart, because an early renewal can reduce a timing cluster but incentives or a lower rent may cost more than the risk avoided, so assess each deal on its merits.
For a manager, the expiry profile is an early-warning calendar. It becomes valuable when paired with tenant conversations, market data and the cost of re-letting, not when treated as an automatic forecast.
In practice
Real-world examples.
Example
A building has $2 million of annualised base rent, with $800,000 attached to leases ending next year. That year carries 40% of current rent exposure.
Example
A tenant occupies only 8% of space but pays 16% of rent. Its expiry is more important in a rent-weighted chart than an area-weighted chart.
Example
A tenant has an early break option. The owner shows the possible break date separately from the contractual final expiry.
Formula
Calculation
Rent share expiring in a period = annualised rent from leases in that period / current annualised rent for the defined portfolio x 100. Area share expiring = leased area expiring in that period / total leased area x 100. State the treatment of options, vacant space and month-to-month leases.
Worked example. A fictional building has $2,000,000 of annualised base rent across 100,000 square feet of let space. Two leases end next year: Tenant A pays $500,000 on 5,000 square feet, and Tenant B pays $300,000 on 25,000 square feet.
- Expiring rent = $500,000 + $300,000 = $800,000, so rent share = $800,000 / $2,000,000 x 100 = 40%.
- Expiring area = 5,000 + 25,000 = 30,000 square feet, so area share = 30,000 / 100,000 x 100 = 30%.
The rent view (40%) shows more exposure than the area view (30%), because Tenant A pays a high rent on little space, which is why both measures should be on the chart.Case study
Seen in the real world.
This entirely fictional case follows Grove Centre, an invented commercial property with several leases ending in one year. Management prepared rent- and space-weighted schedules and discovered a small unit carried a large income share. It opened renewal talks early and stress-tested vacancy and fit-out costs. The property and numbers are invented; the profile showed exposure, not a guaranteed result.
Watch out
Common mistakes.
- Ignoring early break options or treating renewal options as certain.
- Showing only space while overlooking a high-rent tenant.
- Reporting an expiry share without defining the rent or area denominator.
Questions
People also ask.
Does an expiring lease mean a tenant will leave?
No. The tenant may renew, extend or leave; the profile shows the point at which terms need attention.
Should the chart use rent or space?
Both can be useful. Rent shows income exposure and space shows physical letting work.
How is this different from weighted average lease expiry?
The weighted average is one summary number; the profile shows the pattern and clusters by period.
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