What it means
Technical analysts study price charts to look for patterns that suggest what might happen next. Each bar on a chart shows the high, low, open and close for a period, such as a day.
An outside bar is one whose range is wider than the previous bar, so it "engulfs" it, with a higher high and a lower low. An outside reversal adds a condition about the close.
In a rising market, a bearish outside reversal makes a new high and then falls to close below the previous bar's low, suggesting buyers have lost control. In a falling market, a bullish version makes a new low but closes above the previous high.
Traders like the pattern because it shows a sharp change in sentiment within one period. The market pushed to a new extreme, attracted late buyers or sellers, and then reversed against them.
The wider the bar and the heavier the trading volume, the more weight many traders give to the signal. It should be used with care.
The pattern happens often and many signals fail, especially in choppy markets with no clear trend. Traders therefore combine it with other tools, such as trend lines, volume and support levels, and set a stop-loss, an order that limits the loss if the trade goes wrong.
For non-specialists, the term is useful for understanding conversations about charts and market commentary. It does not say anything about a company's fundamentals, such as profit or debt.
It only describes how the price behaved, and price behaviour can be misleading over the short term. Volume adds useful context.
A reversal on volume well above the recent average suggests many participants were involved and were forced to change their minds. A reversal on thin volume might reflect only a few trades and is easier to dismiss.
In practice
Real-world examples.
Example
A share has risen for six weeks. On Thursday it jumps to a new high, then sells off to close below the previous day's low on heavy volume. A trader reduces her position, treating the bar as a warning of a turn.
Example
A currency pair has been falling for weeks. One day it hits a fresh low and then rallies to close above the previous day's high. An analyst writes that the bullish outside reversal suggests the decline may be ending, but advises waiting for confirmation the next day.
Example
A commodity trader sees an outside reversal in the price of copper but notes that volume was low. She decides the signal is weak and takes no action, preferring to wait for a stronger pattern.
Formula
Calculation
Bearish outside reversal test: today's high > yesterday's high, today's low < yesterday's low, and today's close < yesterday's low
Yesterday, a share had a high of $52, a low of $49 and a close of $51. Today it trades up to $53 (above $52), falls to $48 (below $49) and closes at $48.50 (below $49). All three conditions are met, so the pattern is a bearish outside reversal. A trader might place a protective stop just above today's high of $53, so that if the price rises above it the signal is treated as failed. The size of the risk is then 53 - 48.50 = $4.50 per share, which the trader compares with the likely reward before acting.Case study
Seen in the real world.
Kingsmoor Trading is a fictional proprietary trading firm, and this account is illustrative. One of its traders held a large position in an energy share that had climbed for two months.
On a busy Monday, the share made a new high, then fell to close below the previous day's low, forming a bearish outside reversal. The trader sold half of the position at $60 and placed a stop on the rest.
The price fell to $54 over the next week, so selling half avoided a loss of $6 per share on that half. The illustrative lesson is that a signal like this is best used to manage risk by reducing exposure, not as a promise that the market will fall.
Watch out
Common mistakes.
- Treating the pattern as a guaranteed signal, when many outside reversals fail.
- Ignoring the trend, when the pattern is most meaningful after a clear rise or fall.
- Trading it without a stop-loss, which leaves no protection if the signal is wrong.
Questions
People also ask.
What is the difference between an outside bar and an outside reversal?
An outside bar only needs a wider range than the previous bar, while an outside reversal also needs a close in the opposite direction to the trend.
Does it work on any time frame?
It can appear on daily, weekly or intraday charts, but signals on longer time frames are generally given more weight.
Should long-term investors care?
Rarely, as it is mainly a short-term trading signal and says nothing about a company's value.
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