What it means
An exchange or clearing framework specifies a common settlement reference for consistent financial calculation. CME explains that daily settlement prices are used to mark positions to market and determine profits or losses, and its money-calculation material describes futures settlement variation being banked in cash each day.
A daily valuation can therefore create a real funding requirement before the position closes. For an existing long futures position, a higher settlement normally produces a positive daily price difference and a lower settlement produces a negative one, with contract quantity, value factor and product-specific rounding converting the movement into the relevant cash amount.
Daily variation on a position carried overnight is based on today's settlement relative to the previous settlement, not repeatedly on the original trade price, so the successive cash movements capture the path across the days the position remains open. A new trade has a different starting reference, because CME's explanation separates the move from that trade's execution price to the day's settlement from the move on positions already open at the start of the day, and mixing these bases can double-count or omit a day's result.
Daily settlement is different from final settlement, which can determine the cash payoff or other contract outcome at expiry and need not share the same observation time, averaging method or publication process. Contract specifications determine the method, and a product can use eligible market observations or another stated process within its settlement framework.
The last displayed trade is not an adequate substitute when the rules specify a different official reference. Time matters because different contracts can observe different windows, so a market move after the relevant window may appear in a screen quote without changing that day's established reference.
Read the actual timing and status rather than assume every product settles at one universal close. The reference is also not a promise of an executable price, since a trader trying to exit still faces current bids, offers, available size and transaction costs, and an official settlement can be appropriate for clearing without being available for a fresh trade.
Daily settlement variation also differs from initial margin, because variation reflects the relevant marked price changes while initial margin concerns the collateral required to support the position. Rounding and value factors can matter, as CME describes different calculation methods for normal futures and certain notional products, so a broad price-difference formula gives intuition but exact reconciliation requires the relevant product's stated convention.
Some related products have additional cash adjustments, so reconcile the official clearing statement rather than assume every contract's cash flow follows one simplified example. For a non-finance manager using derivatives, identify the exact contract and reference source in the cash forecast.
Separate trade price, previous settlement, daily settlement and final settlement. That distinction helps explain why a hedge can require cash today even when its overall commercial purpose remains sound.
In practice
Real-world examples.
Example
A fictional company holds an overnight long futures position. The official settlement rises by two price points. Finance applies the contract value factor and quantity to calculate the positive daily variation rather than using an unrelated closing quote.
Example
A trader buys during the day above that day's settlement price. The new trade has a negative marked difference despite the market being above yesterday's settlement. Starting-position and new-trade calculations answer different questions.
Example
An option expires against its specified final reference. A late screen price shows another level. The team uses the contract's official settlement rules, not whichever quote produces the preferred payoff.
Formula
Calculation
Simplified existing-position variation = (today's settlement - previous settlement) x contract value factor x signed quantity. With a move from 100 to 102, a factor of $50 per point and three long contracts, the amount is (102 - 100) x $50 x 3 = $300.
Three short contracts would have -$300 on those assumptions. A new long trade of three contracts bought at 103 and settling at 102 has a first-day difference of (102 - 103) x $50 x 3 = -$150, because it starts from its own execution price rather than the previous settlement. Product-specific rounding, currency and extra adjustments require separate verification.Case study
Seen in the real world.
Fictional case study: Cedar Manufacturing's treasury compares a hedge statement with the latest market quote and finds a difference. It initially suspects a clearing error. The analyst separates trade price, previous settlement and the official daily reference.
It checks the value factor and whether the trade was new that day. The cash movement reconciles to the official method. Management updates liquidity forecasts using settlement variation rather than a headline market quote.
Watch out
Common mistakes.
- Substituting the last trade or closing quote for the official contract reference.
- Using original trade price again for every overnight daily variation calculation.
- Confusing daily variation, final settlement and initial margin requirements.
Questions
People also ask.
Is settlement always the last trade?
No. The contract and venue specify the relevant official calculation.
Can settlement create cash payments before expiry?
Yes. Futures daily settlement variation can be banked in cash.
Is the settlement price available for a new trade?
Not necessarily. Execution depends on current market liquidity and orders.
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