What it means
Central banks aim for goals such as stable prices and healthy employment. Their most important tool is the interest rate at which banks lend to each other overnight.
By announcing a target for that rate, the central bank tells markets where it wants borrowing costs to be. The bank then uses tools to keep the actual rate near the target.
These include paying interest on the money banks hold at the central bank, lending at a set rate, and buying or selling securities. In practice the market rate usually sits close to the target, with small differences from day to day.
When the target rises, borrowing becomes more expensive for banks, and they pass the higher cost to customers through business loans, credit cards and mortgages. This tends to slow spending and cool inflation.
When the target falls, the effect runs in the opposite direction and encourages borrowing and investment. Many loans and deals are priced directly off the target rate or a market rate closely linked to it.
A variable-rate loan may be set at the target plus a margin, so any change in the target alters the borrower's interest bill. Finance teams therefore watch the announcements closely and build the possible changes into their budgets.
The term is also used in other settings, such as a target rate of return that a company or investor aims to earn on a project. In that sense, the target rate is an internal hurdle chosen by management.
The meaning depends on whether the context is monetary policy or business planning. Central banks usually explain their decisions in statements and press conferences, and markets try to predict the next move in advance.
A change that matches expectations may have little effect on prices, while a surprise can move currencies, bonds and shares sharply. Finance teams therefore plan for several scenarios instead of relying on one forecast.
In practice
Real-world examples.
Example
A property company has a floating-rate loan linked to the central bank's target. When the target rises by half a percentage point, its monthly interest bill rises. The finance director decides to fix the rate on part of the loan.
Example
A household with a variable mortgage sees its payments increase after the central bank lifts its target. The bank writes to inform the customers of the new payment. Many borrowers cut other spending to cover the extra cost.
Example
A bond investor expects the central bank to lower its target rate. She buys longer-dated bonds, whose prices tend to rise when rates fall. If the central bank does not cut as expected, the bonds will lose value.
Formula
Calculation
Interest cost = loan balance x (target rate + margin)
A company has a $2,000,000 variable-rate loan priced at the target rate plus 2.00%. When the target rate is 4.00%, the loan rate is 6.00% and annual interest = 2,000,000 x 0.06 = $120,000. If the central bank raises the target to 4.50%, the loan rate becomes 6.50% and annual interest = 2,000,000 x 0.065 = $130,000. The increase in interest cost is 130,000 - 120,000 = $10,000 a year.Case study
Seen in the real world.
Maplecrest Retail is an illustrative, fictional chain with a $10,000,000 variable-rate loan priced at the target rate plus 1.50%. When the target stood at 2.00%, the company paid 3.50%, or $350,000 a year.
The central bank then raised its target in steps to 4.00%, which lifted the loan rate to 5.50% and the annual interest to $550,000. The increase of $200,000 cut deeply into the company's profit of $900,000.
The illustrative finance director responded by using an interest rate swap (a contract that exchanges floating payments for fixed ones) on half of the loan. That fixed $5,000,000 of the debt at a known rate and made next year's budget more predictable.
Watch out
Common mistakes.
- Assuming the central bank sets every rate in the economy, when it sets a policy target and markets determine many other rates.
- Forgetting that variable-rate loans respond to changes in the target almost immediately, which can raise the interest bill within a single payment period.
- Confusing the policy target rate with an investor's or company's target rate of return.
Questions
People also ask.
What is the difference between the target rate and the market rate?
The target is the level the central bank aims for, and the market rate is the rate actually observed in interbank lending.
How does a change in the target rate affect businesses?
It changes the cost of floating-rate debt and influences the cost of new borrowing, customer demand and investment decisions.
How often is the target rate reviewed?
Central banks usually review it at scheduled meetings through the year, though they can act between meetings in a crisis.
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