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Wildcatdrilling

Wildcat drilling is the drilling of an exploratory oil or gas well in an area with no proven reserves, where it is not known whether any oil or gas exists. It is high risk, because most such wells find nothing and the money spent on them is lost, but a successful find can be worth many times the cost.

The term is used for the exploration stage of the energy business.

From the Money Master HQ dictionary, founded by Shihan Sheriff (FCMA, VP of Finance at Nomod, CFO at Esanjo Ventures). How these definitions are written.

What it means

Most drilling takes place in or near known fields, where geology and past output give a good guide to what will be found. A wildcat well is drilled far from any existing production, using seismic surveys and geological models as the only evidence that hydrocarbons might be present.

The well is a test of the idea, and the answer is often "no". The costs are large and come first.

A company must pay for leases, surveys, rigs and crews long before it knows if it has found anything. If the well turns out dry, those costs are written off, and if it finds oil or gas, the company then spends much more to appraise and develop the field.

Because of this risk profile, wildcat drilling is usually funded by companies and investors who can afford to lose the money. Larger firms spread the risk across many wells, and smaller firms often sell shares of a well to partners in a joint venture, which divides both the cost and the reward.

Investors in such projects should expect an all-or-nothing outcome for each well. In accounting, companies follow rules on how to treat exploration costs.

Under the "successful efforts" method, the cost of a dry hole is expensed immediately, while under "full cost" accounting, exploration costs are added to the balance sheet and written down later. The choice affects reported profits and makes comparisons between oil companies tricky.

The phrase "wildcat" is also used more widely for risky, unproven ventures, as in wildcat banks of the past or wildcat strikes. In finance it keeps a specific meaning in energy and mining, where companies talk about their exploration success rate and how many wells find commercial quantities.

A better term for the broad idea is early-stage venture risk.

In practice

Real-world examples.

1

Example

A mid-sized exploration company drills a wildcat well in a remote basin based on seismic data. The well is dry, and the company writes off $8,000,000 of exploration costs against its profit for the year.

2

Example

A private investor buys a 10% share in a wildcat well through an oil and gas partnership. Her share of the drilling cost is $800,000, and she understands that she may receive nothing back.

3

Example

A mining company uses the same approach to test a new copper prospect, drilling sample holes before committing to build a mine. The finance team sets a budget for the whole exploration campaign and decides in advance how many dry holes it can afford.

Formula

Calculation

Expected value = (Probability of success x Value of discovery) - Cost of drilling Suppose a company plans an $8,000,000 wildcat well, with a 15% chance of finding a field worth $80,000,000 before drilling costs. The expected value of the discovery is 0.15 x 80,000,000 = $12,000,000. Subtracting the cost of drilling gives 12,000,000 - 8,000,000 = $4,000,000. The expected gain is positive, but there is an 85% chance of losing the whole $8,000,000.

Case study

Seen in the real world.

Red Mesa Energy is a fictional exploration company, and this case study is illustrative only. The board approved a programme of five wildcat wells at $8,000,000 each, a total of $40,000,000, based on a 15% chance of success for each well. The finance director explained that the most likely result was one or no discoveries.

The first four wells were dry, and the company's cash fell by $32,000,000. The fifth well found a field with an estimated value of $80,000,000 before drilling costs. Across the whole programme, the company spent $40,000,000 and gained $80,000,000 of value, but the finance director warned that the same programme could easily have found nothing, and the board kept enough cash to survive that outcome.

Watch out

Common mistakes.

  • Judging a wildcat programme by a single well, when the economics only make sense across many wells.
  • Treating the expected value as a likely outcome, when the real result is usually a total loss on each well or a large gain.
  • Forgetting that finding oil is only the start, since appraisal and development often cost far more than the exploratory well.

Questions

People also ask.

Why is it called wildcat?

The name is thought to come from early American oil exploration, where drilling away from known fields was seen as wild and unpredictable.

What is the difference between wildcat and development drilling?

Development drilling takes place in proven fields where success is likely, while wildcat drilling is in unproven areas where success is uncertain.

How do companies reduce the risk?

They use seismic data, share wells with partners, drill several wells in a portfolio and limit the amount at stake in each one.

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Related

Keep reading.

Exploration and ProductionSuccessful Efforts MethodFull Cost MethodDry HoleJoint VentureReservesExpected ValueRisk-Return Tradeoff
Last updated · October 8, 2026
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